Birds and Climate Change
Bachelors Project on Northern Fulmars
I did my bachelors project on northern fulmars in Orkney, utilising data from a long-term project currently run by the University of Aberdeen. This project is run on an island called Eynhallow, where they have been collecting breeding data from the northern fulmars nesting on its cliffs and old buildings since 1950.
For my project I looked at the effect of environmental variation, in form of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation, WNAO, on breeding success. I also tried to determined the effects of past breeding experience and past breeding success.of the individuals on their breeding success, and also whether these variables influenced the effect of WNAO on breeding success, for example whether birds with longer experience were less severly influenced by adverse weather conditions. In addition, it is know that the birds of the Eynhallow colony spend their winters in different areas, and I also wanted to find out whether this influenced the effect of WNAO on their breeding success.
The effect of WNAO on breeding success was unclear, which indicates that previously identified relationships between the two variables may be explained by correlated trends in WNAO and population size. The decrease in population size seemed to have turned, or slowed down in recent years, see graph below. This shows the huge importance of long-term studies when looking at the effects of environmental change on demography.
Past breeding success had a positive effect on current breeding success, indicating consistent differences in quality between individuals. The effect of experience on breeding success was complex, and showed signs on non-linearity. In addition, breeding experience and past breeding success seemed to influence the response of male breeding success to environmental trends. There was no evidence of any interactions between wintering area and WNAO effects.
Thesis:
Eynhallow
